Phillies vs Mets Game 3 Prediction & Picks 10/8/2024

• Date: October 8, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Phillies vs Mets Game 3 Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Game 3 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Game 3 Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on October 8, 2024, at Citi Field, both teams are eager to gain an edge in this pivotal National League Division Series matchup. With the series currently tied 1-1, the stakes are high for both clubs. The Mets, who finished the regular season with a strong offensive showing, boast the 9th-best offense in MLB, driven by their impressive 5th-place ranking in home runs. Meanwhile, the Phillies' offense ranks 4th overall, showcasing their balanced attack with a 4th-place team batting average and 7th in home runs.

On the mound, the Mets will start Sean Manaea, a left-hander who has been solid this season with a 12-6 record and a 3.47 ERA. However, his 4.04 xFIP suggests some luck has played a part in his success. Manaea's projected performance for this game is mixed, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, anticipating him to pitch 4.7 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters.

Opposing him is Aaron Nola for the Phillies, who has a 14-8 record and a 3.57 ERA. Nola ranks as the 46th-best starting pitcher, indicating a strong season. Projections have him pitching 5.1 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, and striking out 5.3 batters. Despite both pitchers' respectable ERAs, their projections indicate potential struggles with hits and walks.

Both bullpens rank similarly, with the Mets at 13th and the Phillies at 16th, suggesting neither team holds a significant advantage in relief pitching. With betting markets giving both teams a 50% implied win probability and a low game total of 7.0 runs, expect a closely contested battle. The Mets' home-field advantage and slightly better bullpen could tip the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Aaron Nola figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Hitting from the opposite that Sean Manaea throws from, Nick Castellanos will have an advantage in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 116 games (+20.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 68 away games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Sean Manaea has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.95 Units / 50% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Game 3 Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.27 vs New York Mets 4.07

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