Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Game 5 Prediction - 10/10/2025
Updated October 9, 2025
Updated October 9, 2025
The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners will face off in Game 5 of the ALDS on Friday night. With the series tied 2–2, the winner of this game will head to the ALCS to take on the Toronto Blue Jays. The Tigers roared back in Game 4 to even this series. Detroit has its ace on the hill and Seattle will have to overcome that to win this winner-take-all matchup. Before the first pitch from Seattle, continue reading to get my Tigers vs Mariners Game 5 prediction.
Detroit will start Tarik Skubal in Game 5. Skubal has been elite throughout the season and solid in the postseason. He owns a 13–6 record for the year with a 2.21 ERA and a stingy 0.89 WHIP. In the playoffs so far, Skubal has gone 1–0 with a 1.84 ERA over 14.2 innings. He’s proven himself at every turn, but this is the most important start of his career thus far.
Seattle will go with George Kirby, who posted a 10–8 record in 2025 with a 4.21 ERA and 137 strikeouts over 126 innings. He gave up two runs in five innings in Saturday's loss to Detroit to open this series. Kirby may need to be better than that to avoid losing to Skubal in this contest.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Kerry Carpenter (DET) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Spencer Torkelson (DET) | Over 0.5 RBI |
Riley Greene (DET) | Over 0.5 HR |
Cal Raleigh (SEA) | Over 0.5 HR |
Score Projection: Detroit 5 – Seattle 4
Win Probability: Detroit 54% – Seattle 46%
I don't think we will see Tarik Skubal exit this game unless something drastic happens. He is going to pitch at a high level and the question will be whether or not Kirby can hang enough zeroes on the scoreboard to keep up with him. I don't think Kirby can do that and I will take the Tigers to win behind Skubal to advance to the ALCS.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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