Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction – 4/22/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field for the second game of their series. The Mets currently sit at 16-7, enjoying a strong start to the season, while the Phillies hold a record of 13-10, indicating a solid performance as well. In their previous matchup, the Mets emerged victorious, adding to their momentum heading into this game.

The pitching matchup features Griffin Canning for the Mets, who has had a decent season with a 3.43 ERA and a 2-1 record over four starts. However, advanced metrics rank him as the 203rd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he might not be as effective as his ERA indicates. Canning’s high walk rate of 11.4% could be problematic against a Phillies offense that leads MLB in walks. This could give Philadelphia an advantage, especially if Canning struggles with control.

On the other hand, Cristopher Sanchez is projected to start for the Phillies. Sanchez boasts an impressive 2.96 ERA and a 2-0 record, ranking him as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to generate strikeouts at a rate of 30.7% may be challenged by a Mets lineup that is among the least strikeout-prone in the league.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup promises to be closely contested, and the Mets' current moneyline of +110 suggests they are viewed as underdogs, despite their recent form. The projections indicate that this game could be tighter than anticipated, making it an intriguing contest for bettors.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 84th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bryson Stott is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Collectively, Philadelphia Phillies batters have excelled in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 3rd-best in the game.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Pete Alonso has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season's 89.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.75, New York Mets 4

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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