Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/2/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Mercado - Phillies
  • Hayden Wesneski - Cubs

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As we approach the July 2, 2024, matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field, the two teams find themselves on opposite ends of the standings. The Cubs are enduring a below-average season with a 39-46 record, while the Phillies are riding high with a 55-29 record, making them one of the top teams in the league.

The Cubs will send Hayden Wesneski to the mound. Wesneski, a right-hander, has had a mixed season. His 3.60 ERA is solid, but his 4.81 xERA suggests he's been fortunate and might regress. He's also oscillated between starting and bullpen roles, with only four starts to his name this year. In his last outing on June 26, he pitched four innings, giving up three earned runs while striking out seven.

On the other side, the Phillies are projected to start Michael Mercado, another right-hander. Mercado has made just one bullpen appearance this season, though he was effective with a 0.00 ERA. However, his 2.60 xFIP indicates some luck, and his lack of experience could be a factor. One thing to watch is his strikeout ability (33.3 K%) against a Cubs offense that ranks 6th in strikeouts. This could give Mercado an edge, especially since the Cubs also draw a lot of walks (4th in MLB), but Mercado has shown excellent control.

Offensively, the Phillies hold a significant advantage. They rank 4th in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, 5th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Alec Bohm has been their standout performer, boasting a .300 batting average and .839 OPS with 68 RBIs. The Cubs, in contrast, rank 19th in overall offense and have struggled with consistency, particularly in batting average (25th).

Despite their struggles, the Cubs are slight favorites with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% chance of winning. This might be influenced by their home-field advantage and the Phillies starting an inexperienced pitcher. However, with the Phillies' potent lineup and superior bullpen (ranked 4th), this game could go either way. Both teams have high implied team totals, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair, reflected in the 9.5 run Game Total.

Look for Ian Happ to lead the Cubs' offense; he's been their best hitter this season and has been hot over the last week, sporting a 1.164 OPS. Meanwhile, Brandon Marsh has been on fire for the Phillies, hitting .467 with a 1.356 OPS over the past week. This intriguing matchup is set to kick off what should be an exciting series.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Hayden Wesneski’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (94.5 mph) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (93.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Michael Busch has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 82.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+11.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 80 games (+20.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 54% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.91 vs Chicago Cubs 5.48

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