The Philadelphia Phillies (92-62) will face the Arizona Diamondbacks (77-77) at Chase Field in Phoenix on Saturday night. With the Phillies having clinched the NL East title and the Diamondbacks fighting for a Wild Card spot, this matchup carries significant postseason implications. Here, I take a closer look at this National League contest and give you my Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction for tonight’s game.
Our Phillies vs Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks to win
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 8:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs Zac Gallen
- Stadium: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Dbacks.TV
Key Storylines
- Pitching Matchup: Zac Gallen (12-14, 4.73 ERA) will take the mound for the home team in this game. Gallen has pitched well below the standards that he has showcased in previous seasons. But he is still exactly who the snakes will want on the mound in a huge game. Gallen will take on Aaron Nola (4-9, 6.44 ERA) of the Phillies. Nola has struggled mightily when he has been healthy this year, but that has been anything but a given for the Phillies this year.
- Recent Team Streaks: The Phillies have won three of their last four games and are playing well with playoff seeding on the line. Arizona has dropped two games in a row and they are three games back of the Mets for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Aaron Nola | Strikeouts | Under 6.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Phillies hold a 3-1 lead in the season series against the Diamondbacks.
- The last two games between these teams have seen 10 or more total runs scored.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Phillies 4 – Diamondbacks 6
- Win Probability: Phillies 40%, Diamondbacks 60%
Final Thoughts
With the Diamondbacks’ playoff aspirations on the line, they are expected to have the edge in this matchup. Despite the Phillies’ strong season, their recent struggles against right-handed pitchers and Aaron Nola’s inconsistent performances suggest a challenging game ahead. The Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen has shown more stability and the home-field advantage for Arizona could prove decisive. Betting on the Diamondbacks to win appears to be the best choice for this game as far as I’m concerned.
