Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Phillips - Phillies
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 3, 2024, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Blue Jays, sitting at 67-72, are struggling this season and are not in playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Phillies are enjoying a strong campaign at 81-56, firmly in the postseason race. This game marks the first in a series between the two clubs, adding an extra layer of intrigue.

In their last outing, the Phillies faced a tough opponent, but they managed to secure a win, further solidifying their playoff hopes. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have had a rough stretch, and their recent performance has left fans yearning for better days.

On the mound, Toronto will send Chris Bassitt to the hill. Despite his 9-13 record and a 4.27 ERA, Bassitt ranks as the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he is above average. He is projected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, which aligns with his average performance this season. However, he faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 7th in MLB, showcasing their offensive prowess, including a 3rd best batting average.

Tyler Phillips will take the ball for Philadelphia. Though his 5.50 ERA signals struggles, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Phillips has a low strikeout rate, which could play into the hands of a Blue Jays offense that ranks 16th overall but has been inconsistent.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Blue Jays holding a slight edge in the moneyline at -115. Given the current projections and the teams' trajectories, this matchup could be pivotal for both sides as they look to establish momentum moving forward.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Tyler Phillips projects to strikeout an average of 3.2 hitters in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Bryson Stott's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 87-mph seasonal average has decreased to 83.7-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has relied on his four-seam fastball 5.4% less often this season (3.9%) than he did last season (9.3%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#2-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 43 games at home (+17.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 45% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.54 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.89

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.