Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 7/19/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Martin Perez - Pirates

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies face off on July 19, 2024, at PNC Park in a National League matchup that sees the Pirates (48-48) hosting the Phillies (62-34). The Pirates are having an average season, while the Phillies are enjoying a great one. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

The Pirates will send Martin Perez to the mound, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 1-5 record and a 5.15 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Perez is ranked 221st among MLB starting pitchers. He has an xFIP of 4.43, indicating some bad luck, but his projections are still grim: 3.1 earned runs, 3.9 strikeouts, 6.2 hits, and 1.7 walks over an average of 5.5 innings.

On the other side, the Phillies counter with right-hander Aaron Nola, who boasts a strong season with an 11-4 record and a 3.38 ERA. Nola is ranked 20th among MLB starting pitchers and projects to allow 2.7 earned runs, strike out 6.1 batters, and give up 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks over an average of 5.8 innings. His performance has been a key factor in the Phillies' success this year.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 28th in MLB, struggling across the board. They are 26th in team batting average, 21st in home runs, and 24th in stolen bases. In stark contrast, the Phillies boast the 3rd best offense, ranking 3rd in batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases.

With the Pirates as underdogs at +120 and an implied win probability of 44%, bettors might find value in backing them, especially considering Perez's potential for better performances given his xFIP. However, the Phillies' strong season and Nola's elite pitching make them the favorites at -140 with a 56% implied win probability. The projected game total of 8.0 runs suggests a balanced contest, but the Phillies' offensive firepower could tilt the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Over his previous 3 outings, Aaron Nola has experienced a substantial rise in his fastball velocity: from 91.6 mph over the entire season to 92.8 mph lately.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Martin Perez struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Weston Wilson, Cristian Pache, Kyle Schwarber).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Martin Perez will wring up 4 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Nick Gonzales has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 82.1-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+11.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 81 games (+20.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 17 games at home (+12.10 Units / 71% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.04 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.29

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