Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet – 7/21/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Phillips - Phillies
  • Marco Gonzales - Pirates

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the National League matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies approaches on July 21, 2024, at PNC Park, the teams find themselves in starkly different positions. The Phillies, sitting at 62-36, boast one of the best records in MLB and have their eyes set firmly on the postseason. The Pirates, with a 50-48 record, are having an average season, hovering around the .500 mark.

This game marks the third in the series between the two teams. The Pirates are projected to start Marco Gonzales, a left-handed pitcher who, despite his excellent 2.45 ERA, has been somewhat fortunate this season. His 4.03 xFIP suggests that his performance may regress. Gonzales's 5.6 BB% indicates good control, which could help mitigate the Phillies' patient offense, ranked 4th in drawing walks. However, Gonzales's projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aren't favorable: 4.6 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs, 3.3 strikeouts, 5.1 hits, and 1.4 walks on average today.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Tyler Phillips, a right-handed pitcher. Phillips's 4.50 ERA has been inflated by bad luck, as indicated by his 2.39 xFIP. The projections see him pitching 5.0 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, 3.8 strikeouts, 5.8 hits, and 1.7 walks. Phillips's high-strikeout ability (31.6 K%) could be a significant advantage against the Pirates' offense, which ranks 5th worst in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Phillies hold a clear edge. They rank 2nd in MLB in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. The Pirates, meanwhile, have struggled, ranking 27th in overall offense, 26th in batting average, 21st in home runs, and 24th in stolen bases.

With the Phillies as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, their implied win probability sits at 56%. The Pirates, the underdogs at +120, have an implied win probability of 44%. Given the Phillies' superior offense and favorable pitching matchup, they appear well-positioned to take this game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Because flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball hitters, Tyler Phillips and his 48.6% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in this game facing 2 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Schwarber has big-time HR ability (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Marco Gonzales struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Bryce Harper has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Marco Gonzales's cut-fastball utilization has increased by 20.2% from last year to this one (8.8% to 29%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Rowdy Tellez's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 89.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 82-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jack Suwinski, Joey Bart, Nick Gonzales, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 61 of their last 98 games (+18.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.33 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.07

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.