Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Pick For 7/5/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are set to face the Philadelphia Phillies on July 5, 2024, at Truist Park in a significant National League East matchup. The Phillies, with a stellar 57-30 record, are enjoying a great season, while the Braves are also performing well at 47-38.

On the mound for the Braves will be Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 6th in THE BAT X's ratings. Fried has been outstanding this season with a 7-3 Win/Loss record and a sterling 2.91 ERA. Despite some underlying stats like his 3.43 xERA suggesting possible regression, Fried's current form gives the Braves confidence. Fried is known for his ground-ball prowess, which will be crucial against the Phillies' powerful lineup, ranked 5th in the league with 103 home runs this season.

Countering for the Phillies is Aaron Nola, a great right-handed pitcher ranked 30th by THE BAT X. Nola holds a 9-4 Win/Loss record with a solid 3.43 ERA. Although his projections indicate he might allow 2.9 earned runs today, Nola's overall performance and ability to strike out batters at a rate of 6.3 per game are key assets for Philadelphia.

Offensively, the Phillies hold an edge with a lineup that ranks 4th in the league, featuring impressive metrics like a .300 team batting average (3rd in MLB) and ranking 4th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Braves, despite having an average offense, have a powerhouse in Austin Riley, who’s been on a hot streak with a .286 batting average and a 1.000 OPS over the last week.

Both teams boast strong bullpens, with the Phillies’ ranked 4th and the Braves’ 8th. Given Atlanta's home advantage and an implied win probability of 56%, this game is projected to be tightly contested. Expect a low-scoring battle with a Game Total of 7.5 runs, highlighting the anticipated pitching duel between Fried and Nola.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola's 91.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 18th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nick Castellanos is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies in today's game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .307, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a notable advantage over flyball bats, Max Fried and his 52.1% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in this outing matching up with 2 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

This season, Marcell Ozuna has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.8 mph compared to last year's 96.5 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 80 games (+22.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 75 games (+19.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+11.00 Units / 61% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.82 vs Atlanta Braves 4.61

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