Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks 5/30/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 30, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Muller - Athletics
  • Shawn Armstrong - Rays

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the Oakland Athletics in an American League matchup at Tropicana Field on May 30, 2024. The Rays, with a season record of 27-29, are having a below-average season, while the Athletics, with a record of 23-34, are experiencing a difficult year.

On the mound, the Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Shawn Armstrong, who has made 20 appearances out of the bullpen this year. Armstrong has a Win/Loss record of 1-1 with an ERA of 3.91, which is considered good. His 3.27 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher Kyle Muller. Muller has made 13 appearances out of the bullpen and has a Win/Loss record of 0-1 with an impressive ERA of 3.48. However, his 4.09 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

This game is the third in the series between the Rays and the Athletics. In their last game, which took place on May 29, the Rays emerged victorious with a score of 4-3. The Rays were favored to win, with a closing Moneyline price of -180 and an implied win probability of 63%. On the other hand, the Athletics had a closing Moneyline price of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%, indicating that they were considered significant underdogs.

The Rays offense ranks as the 27th best in MLB this season, out of 30 teams. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league. They also demonstrate power at the plate, ranking 4th in team home runs and 2nd in team stolen bases. In contrast, the Athletics offense ranks as the 23rd best in MLB, and they struggle particularly in team batting average and team home runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rays are projected to be the big favorites in this game, with a win probability of 65%, while the Athletics have a projected win probability of 35%. Based on the current odds, the Rays have a high implied team total of 4.27 runs, while the Athletics have a low implied team total of 3.73 runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Kyle Muller has been lucky this year, compiling a 3.48 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.32 — a 1.84 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Since the start of last season, Aledmys Diaz's 2.8% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 6th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Oakland Athletics hitters jointly rank among the worst in the league since the start of last season ( 3rd-worst) as far as their 88.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Amed Rosario's speed has decreased this year. His 29.42 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.95 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (44.9% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games (+17.85 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.30 Units / 48% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.40 Units / 35% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.19 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.81

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.