Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/17/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Muller - Athletics
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On May 17, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the Oakland Athletics at Kauffman Stadium in an American League matchup. The Royals, with a season record of 26-19, are having a great season, while the Athletics have struggled with a record of 19-27.

The Royals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ragans is ranked as the #15 best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started nine games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-3. Although his ERA stands at 4.22, his 3.14 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Ragans is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, while striking out 6.9 batters.

On the other hand, the Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher Kyle Muller, who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Muller is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He has made 10 appearances out of the bullpen, with an ERA of 3.90. Muller is projected to pitch around 3.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, while striking out 2.6 batters.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank as the 18th best team in MLB, with an average team batting average of .294. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league. The Athletics, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 22nd in MLB with a team batting average of .230.

Considering the pitching matchup and offensive rankings, the Royals have an advantage in this game. Ragans' strong performance this season and the Royals' ability to steal bases could pose a challenge for Muller, who struggles with walks. Additionally, the Royals' bullpen ranks higher than the Athletics' bullpen, further strengthening their position.

It's important to note that these projections are based on the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the outcome of the game will ultimately be determined on the field.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Kyle Muller has been unlucky since the start of last season, posting a 6.62 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.26 — a 1.36 deviation.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brent Rooker's true offensive skill to be a .334, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .074 deviation between that mark and his actual .408 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans's 2532-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 95th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nelson Velazquez has a ton of pop (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (32.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Muller doesn't generate many whiffs (5th percentile K%) — great news for Velazquez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Kansas City Royals offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.55 Units / 21% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.06 vs Kansas City Royals 5.8

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