Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 7/9/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and the Oakland Athletics are set to face off on July 9, 2024, at Fenway Park in what should be an intriguing American League matchup. The Red Sox are having a solid season with a 49-40 record, while the Athletics have struggled mightily, sitting at 34-58. With Boston looking to bolster their playoff aspirations, the Athletics are just aiming to play spoiler.

Boston will send Brayan Bello to the mound. Bello, a right-hander, has an 8-5 record over 15 starts this year, but his 5.19 ERA suggests he's had some tough outings. However, his 3.87 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and could be due for better results. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, anticipates Bello to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.9 batters—solid numbers that suggest he can keep Boston in the game.

On the other side, the Athletics will counter with Joey Estes, another right-hander. Estes has made 10 starts this season, sporting a 3-3 record and a 4.39 ERA, which is fairly average. However, THE BAT X projects him to be less effective today, expecting him to pitch just 4.6 innings while allowing 3.2 earned runs and striking out only 3.5 batters.

Offensively, the Red Sox are in good shape. Ranking 9th in team batting average and 10th in home runs, they boast a well-rounded offense, further enhanced by their 6th-ranked stolen base tally. Rafael Devers has been particularly hot, recording a .375 batting average and a 1.316 OPS over the past week. This offensive firepower gives Boston a significant edge against an Athletics team that ranks 25th in offense and 28th in batting average, despite ranking 5th in home runs.

The Red Sox bullpen has been a weak spot, ranking 26th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, a stark contrast to the Athletics' bullpen, which ranks 8th. This disparity could play a role late in the game, especially if it's close.

Boston enters the game as the heavy betting favorite with a moneyline of -190, implying a 63% win probability. Given their superior record, stronger offense, and the potential for Bello to outperform his season stats, the Red Sox seem well-positioned to start the series on a high note.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes's 2410-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 78th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Zack Gelof has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 8.8% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering that flyball hitters hold a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Brayan Bello and his 52.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position today facing 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rafael Devers has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 away games (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Dominic Smith has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 35 games (+7.75 Units / 22% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.56 vs Boston Red Sox 5.74

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