Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners Pick For 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners host the Oakland Athletics on September 29, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, both teams find themselves in different narratives this season. The Mariners, sitting at 84-77, have had an above-average season. The Athletics, on the other hand, are having a tough year with a 69-92 record and are out of playoff contention.

Seattle is a considerable favorite in this American League West matchup, with both betting markets and the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, giving them a strong chance to win. The Mariners are projected to have a win probability 5% higher than the odds suggest, signaling possible value for bettors backing Seattle.

Logan Gilbert takes the mound for the Mariners, bringing his elite status as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a less-than-ideal 8-12 win/loss record this season, his 3.33 ERA is a testament to his effectiveness on the mound. Gilbert's high-strikeout ability aligns well against the Athletics, who rank 5th in most strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving him an edge.

Mitch Spence will start for Oakland. While his 4.35 ERA is average, Spence is one of the lowest-ranked pitchers in MLB. His ability to capitalize on the Mariners' struggles, who lead MLB in strikeouts, may be crucial for the Athletics to pull off an upset.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 22nd overall, struggling particularly with a 29th place in team batting average. However, their home run capabilities at 13th could be pivotal. Meanwhile, the Athletics, ranked 21st offensively, bring power to the plate, sitting at 8th in home runs. Both teams' bullpens could also play significant roles, with Oakland's ranked 10th compared to Seattle's 21st.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence has a mean projection of 15.7 outs today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Brent Rooker has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.9-mph average to last year's 94.9-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 9.8% more often this year (67.7%) than he did last year (57.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.245) suggests that J.P. Crawford has had bad variance on his side this year with his .201 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 89 games (+10.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 74 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Logan Gilbert has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.06 vs Seattle Mariners 4.11

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