Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 7/12/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hogan Harris - Athletics
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies (61-32) are set to host the struggling Oakland Athletics (35-60) at Citizens Bank Park on July 12, 2024. This Interleague matchup will feature left-handed pitchers Ranger Suarez and Hogan Harris on the mound. The Phillies, currently having a stellar season, sit comfortably in a playoff spot, while the Athletics are enduring a tough year.

Ranger Suarez, ranked as the #34 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts an excellent 2.58 ERA over 18 starts with a 10-3 record. Despite his strong ERA, peripherals like a 3.17 xERA suggest some luck has been on his side. Suarez is known for his high ground-ball rate (55%), which could neutralize the Athletics' power-heavy approach (ranked 6th in MLB with 111 home runs).

Hogan Harris, meanwhile, has struggled with a 1-3 record and a 3.22 ERA over 7 starts. His peripherals, including a 4.85 xFIP, indicate he might be due for regression. Harris's projections for today's game are not promising; he's expected to allow 2.9 earned runs and strike out only 3.8 batters over an average of 5.1 innings.

Offensively, the Phillies are a force to be reckoned with, ranking 4th in MLB overall and 3rd in team batting average. They also rank 7th in home runs and 4th in stolen bases. Trea Turner has been on fire recently, hitting .417 with a 1.378 OPS over the last week, including four home runs and 11 RBIs.

The Athletics' offense is near the bottom of the league, ranking 25th overall and 28th in team batting average. Brent Rooker has been a bright spot, hitting .368 with a 1.132 OPS over the last week. However, their offensive struggles, combined with a daunting matchup against Suarez, do not bode well.

The Phillies' bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, should provide solid support if Suarez runs into trouble. In contrast, the Athletics’ bullpen, while ranked a respectable 10th, might not be enough to overcome their starting pitching and offensive deficiencies.

With the Phillies being heavy favorites at -275 and an implied win probability of 71%, it’s clear that they are expected to dominate this matchup. Philadelphia's potent offense and Suarez's strong season give them a significant edge as they look to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Hogan Harris has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed bats in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Zack Gelof has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph to 98.4-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Oakland Athletics have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (1852 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (1915 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.256) may lead us to conclude that Whit Merrifield has been unlucky this year with his .199 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 78 games (+24.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.75 Units / 65% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.83 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.72

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