Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 7/28/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Osvaldo Bido - Athletics
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Oakland Athletics on July 28, 2024, at Angel Stadium in an American League West matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels sitting at 45-60 and the Athletics at 44-63. This game marks the fourth in the series between these two teams.

The Angels are projected to start Jose Soriano, a right-handed pitcher who has been above average this season, ranking as the 61st best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Soriano boasts a 3.51 ERA over 15 starts, with a 6-7 Win/Loss record. However, his peripheral stats indicate he may have been somewhat fortunate this year, with a 4.04 FIP suggesting potential regression. Soriano's matchup against the Athletics could be favorable, as he’s a high-groundball pitcher, which could neutralize Oakland's power-heavy offense that ranks 4th in MLB in home runs.

On the other side, the Athletics will send Osvaldo Bido to the mound. Bido has a 3.09 ERA this season but is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB by advanced metrics. His 5.29 xFIP indicates that he has been quite lucky and could struggle going forward. Bido is projected to pitch just 4.7 innings on average, which is below average, and his strikeout numbers are concerningly low.

Offensively, the Angels have been underwhelming, ranking 24th in overall offense, 22nd in batting average, and 20th in home runs. However, they do rank 7th in stolen bases, showcasing some speed on the base paths. Nolan Schanuel has been the Angels' standout hitter over the last week, boasting a .333 batting average and a .955 OPS over six games.

The Athletics, while average in overall offense (17th), have struggled with consistency, ranking 27th in batting average but 4th in home runs. Lawrence Butler has been on fire recently, hitting .417 with a 1.417 OPS over the last seven games.

Betting markets have the Angels as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability. THE BAT X projects the Angels with a 57% win probability, making them a promising bet. With both teams struggling, this game could hinge on the performance of their starting pitchers and the ability of the Angels' offense to capitalize on Bido's vulnerabilities.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Osvaldo Bido's 2382-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 76th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.1 mph compared to last year's 94.9 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Shea Langeliers pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (52.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #7 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Hitters such as Luis Rengifo with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Osvaldo Bido who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Los Angeles Angels offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+9.00 Units / 60% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+13.35 Units / 42% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.4 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.99

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