Oakland Athletics at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on August 27, 2024, both teams are seeking to find their rhythm amidst disappointing seasons. The Reds currently sit at 63-68, while the Athletics are struggling at 56-75. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum. The Reds are betting favorites with a current moneyline of -140, reflecting a 56% implied win probability.

In their last outing, the Reds faced the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 25, narrowly losing 4-3. Meanwhile, the Athletics enjoyed a victory against the Milwaukee Brewers, winning by the same scoreline. For this game, the Reds are expected to start Nick Lodolo, who has had an up-and-down season but ranks 63rd among MLB starting pitchers. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, though he struggled in his last start, giving up 5 earned runs in just 5 innings.

On the other side, the Athletics will send Mitch Spence to the mound. While Spence has a Win/Loss record of 7-9, he has struggled with strikeouts, which could work in the Reds’ favor as they have one of the highest strikeout rates in the league. The projections suggest a high-scoring affair, with the Reds expected to score around 5.36 runs, compared to the Athletics' 4.99 runs.

With the Reds’ offense ranking 17th overall but showing power potential with the 13th best home run count, they will look to capitalize on Spence’s weaknesses. Overall, this game promises to be an interesting clash of teams looking to improve their standings as the season nears its conclusion.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (84.7% this year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Brent Rooker has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year's 94.9-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (6.8) provides evidence that Santiago Espinal has had positive variance on his side this year with his 16.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+10.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 123 games (+10.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+9.45 Units / 85% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 5.01 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.39

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