New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks 5/11/2024

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the New York Yankees in an American League East matchup on May 11, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, with a season record of 19-20, are having an average season, while the Yankees boast a strong record of 26-14 and are having a great season.

Zack Littell, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Rays, while the Yankees are expected to start Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Littell is ranked as the #106 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating an average performance. On the other hand, Cortes is ranked as the #32 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting a good performance.

Littell has started seven games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 1-2 and an excellent ERA of 3.00. His 2.39 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. Cortes has started eight games, with a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and a good ERA of 3.72. His 2.63 xERA (Expected ERA) and 3.16 FIP indicate that he has also been unlucky and is expected to improve.

In terms of offense, the Rays rank as the #20 best team in MLB this season, while the Yankees rank as the #2 best team. The Rays excel in team batting average (#9 in MLB), home runs (#4 in MLB), and stolen bases (#2 in MLB). The Yankees, despite a low team batting average (#29 in MLB), have a strong presence in home runs (#8 in MLB).

The Rays have an average bullpen ranking of #12 in MLB, while the Yankees have a lower ranking of #21. This suggests that the Rays may have a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Rays have an implied team total of 3.81 runs, while the Yankees have an implied team total of 4.19 runs. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation.

Considering the projected win probabilities, the Yankees are favored with a 54% chance of victory, while the Rays have a 46% chance. Despite this, the betting markets anticipate a close game.

With Nestor Cortes, a high-flyball pitcher, facing the powerful Rays offense, which ranks #4 in home runs this season, the Rays may have an advantage in turning flyballs into home runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Nestor Cortes's 90.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 17th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In terms of his home runs, Austin Wells has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 19.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 35.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

New York Yankees hitters jointly have been among the best in the league since the start of last season (3rd-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Recording 92.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Zack Littell places him the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Amed Rosario's 3.6% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) grades out in the 11th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (44.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 away games (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.96 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.24

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