New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Preview – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees visit T-Mobile Park on September 18, 2024, they are looking to extend their strong campaign against the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees, sitting at 87-63, are firmly positioned for the postseason, while the Mariners, at 77-73, have had an average season, trailing in the standings. This matchup marks the second game in the series after yesterday's contest, which the Yankees won, further solidifying their playoff aspirations.

On the mound, Seattle will send Bryce Miller, who holds a respectable 3.12 ERA. He projects to pitch about 5.1 innings, averaging 2.3 earned runs allowed today. However, Miller has been a high-flyball pitcher this season, and he will face a Yankees lineup that leads the league in home runs with 215. This could pose a challenge, especially given his flyball tendencies against a powerful offense.

Nestor Cortes takes the mound for New York. With a 3.90 ERA, he has been effective but has struggled with a 9-10 record. Cortes projects to pitch about 5.2 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, making him a solid choice against a Mariners lineup ranked 23rd in MLB offense. Despite the Yankees’ impressive 3rd-best overall ranking in offense, their low 26th ranking in stolen bases suggests a reliance on power rather than speed.

In terms of betting, the Mariners have a moneyline of +100, implying a close contest. With their recent performances and the impact of the Yankees’ potent bats, it appears that New York should have the upper hand going into this matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Aaron Judge has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 95.9-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Gleyber Torres has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Generating 17.3 outs per game per started this year on average, Bryce Miller checks in at the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle's 15.3° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year: #1 overall.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+11.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 96 games (+16.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 39% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.6 vs Seattle Mariners 3.91

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