New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants Odds & Picks – 5/31/2024

New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On May 31, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will face off against the New York Yankees at Oracle Park in an Interleague matchup. The Giants, with a season record of 29-28, are having an average season, while the Yankees boast an impressive 39-19 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Giants will have Jordan Hicks as their projected starting pitcher, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the #68 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Hicks has started 11 games this year, with a win/loss record of 4-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.33. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other side, the Yankees will start Marcus Stroman, another right-handed pitcher ranked as the #81 best starting pitcher in MLB. Stroman has also started 11 games this season, with a win/loss record of 4-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.76. Similar to Hicks, his 4.10 xFIP indicates potential regression in his performance.

The Giants' offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, while the Yankees' offense holds the top spot. However, the Giants have struggled in team batting average, ranking 21st, and stolen bases, ranking 29th. In contrast, the Yankees excel in team home runs, ranking 8th, but struggle in team batting average, ranking 29th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Giants have the #1 ranked bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Yankees' bullpen ranks 20th. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

THE BAT X projects a close game, with the Giants having a 49% win probability and the Yankees having a 51% win probability. However, the Giants are considered underdogs with a current moneyline of +120, implying a win probability of 44%. The Yankees, as the betting favorites, have a moneyline of -140, indicating a win probability of 56%.

Based on the current odds, the Giants have a low implied team total of 3.49 runs, while the Yankees have an average implied team total of 4.01 runs. THE BAT X projects the Giants to score 3.94 runs on average, while the Yankees are projected to score 4.25 runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (58.4% compared to 45.4% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Aaron Judge's 26.9% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) grades out in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Yankees bats jointly rank among the elite in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (3rd-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Over his previous 3 GS, Jordan Hicks has seen a significant decline in his fastball velocity: from 94.4 mph over the entire season to 93.2 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

This season, there has been a decline in Patrick Bailey's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.17 ft/sec last year to 25.56 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games (+14.15 Units / 40% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+17.80 Units / 40% ROI)

New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.25 vs San Francisco Giants 3.94

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