New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 7/12/2024

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 12, 2024, fans are treated to a high-stakes American League East matchup. Both teams are having fantastic seasons; the Orioles stand at 57-36, while the Yankees are close behind at 56-39. With these teams separated by just a few games in the standings, this series opener holds significant playoff implications.

On the mound, Baltimore will send Cade Povich, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. In six starts, Povich has posted a 1-3 record with a disastrous 6.51 ERA. However, his 5.99 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Povich to go 4.8 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 4.9 hits, 2.1 walks, and striking out 4.3 batters on average today.

Povich faces a potent Yankees lineup, ranked 5th in offense and 2nd in home runs with 132 bombs this season. The Yankees' patient approach at the plate—ranking 1st in walks—could spell trouble for Povich, who has a 10.4 BB% this year. Povich is also a high-flyball pitcher, a dangerous trait against the Yankees' power-laden lineup.

Gerrit Cole is set to start for New York. Cole, despite being ranked 31st in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, has also faced difficulties with a 6.75 ERA in four starts. His 5.08 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and might turn things around. THE BAT X projects Cole to pitch 5.6 innings, surrendering 2.8 earned runs, 5.4 hits, 1.4 walks, and striking out 6.0 batters on average today.

While Cole's high-walk issues could be problematic, Baltimore’s offense, which ranks 4th in fewest walks, might not fully exploit this weakness. The Orioles, however, boast the league's top home run tally with 147 and have the 2nd-best offense, giving them a significant edge against Cole's high-flyball tendencies.

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Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Gerrit Cole has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 5.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

J.D. Davis has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Given his reverse platoon split, Cade Povich will be at an advantage going up against 6 bats in the projected lineup who hit from the other side in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In comparison to his 92-mph average last year, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order ranks as the 3rd-best on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 77 games (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 56% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.14 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.54

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