New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners Best Bet – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 17, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Yankees, with an 87-63 record, are enjoying a strong season and currently sit in a favorable position for postseason contention. In contrast, the Mariners are 77-73, having an average season and looking to make a late push for a Wild Card spot.

This matchup marks the first game in the series between these two teams, setting the stage for an intriguing battle, especially with everything on the line for these two teams over the final stretch of the regular season.

Seattle's Bryan Woo is projected to take the mound. With a solid 8-2 record and an impressive 2.38 ERA, Woo ranks as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness this season. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, potentially hinting at a decline in performance moving forward. On the other hand, New York's Luis Gil, holding a 13-6 record and a 3.18 ERA, is regarded as the 75th best starting pitcher. While Gil has been above average, his high-walk rate could play into the Mariners' hands, as they rank 4th in MLB in walks.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 3rd best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their 1st ranking in home runs with 215. In contrast, the Mariners struggle offensively, ranking 23rd overall and dead last in team batting average. With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, the projections favor a close contest, but the Yankees' power and the Mariners' inconsistent offense could tip the scales in New York's favor.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Compared to average, Luis Gil has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gleyber Torres has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo's change-up rate has increased by 5.9% from last season to this one (3.6% to 9.5%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Luke Raley has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year's 94.7-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+10.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 91 games (+16.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.18 vs Seattle Mariners 3.98

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