New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics Prediction For 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • J.T. Ginn - Athletics

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics host the New York Yankees on September 20, 2024, the two teams find themselves in contrasting positions this season. The Athletics, sitting at 67-86, are having a tough year, while the Yankees boast an impressive 89-64 record. This American League matchup at the Oakland Coliseum sees the teams setting the stage for the first game in their series.

On the mound, the Athletics will start J.T. Ginn, a right-hander ranked 175th among MLB starting pitchers. Ginn, despite a 4.94 ERA, may find some solace in his 3.84 xFIP indicating potential improvement. He'll be facing a Yankees lineup that is 3rd in overall offense, driven by their MLB-leading home run total. The Athletics' offense, however, ranks 6th in homers, suggesting their power could exploit Yankees’ ace Gerrit Cole's tendency to allow flyballs, a crucial factor that could tip the scales.

Gerrit Cole, who ranks 31st among starting pitchers, takes the mound for the Yankees. His 3.97 ERA complements his ability to rack up strikeouts, averaging 7.1 per game according to projections. Still, Cole's susceptibility to home runs might be a concern given Oakland's power potential.

Offensively, the Athletics have seen a recent spark from Brent Rooker, who boasts a .417 average and 1.148 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has been the Yankees’ standout, hitting .368 with a 1.309 OPS in his past six games.

Betting lines reflect the Yankees' dominance with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. However, the Athletics, considered underdogs at +165, could potentially capitalize on their power against Cole and defy the odds. With both teams sporting average bullpens, this game could hinge on which lineup can best exploit the opposing pitcher’s weaknesses.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Gerrit Cole has used his secondary offerings 7% more often this year (54%) than he did last year (47%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball batters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like J.T. Ginn.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Gleyber Torres has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

J.T. Ginn has been one of the unluckiest hurlers in the league on balls in play this year with a .336 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Tyler Soderstrom has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have been the luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 118 games (+13.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+14.15 Units / 71% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.93 vs Oakland Athletics 3.72

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