Yankees vs Royals Game 3 Prediction For 10/9/2024

• Date: October 9, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Yankees vs Royals Game 3 Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Game 3 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Game 3 Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees continue their American League Division Series matchup on October 9, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Yankees, holding a slight edge in the betting markets with a 51% implied win probability, are looking to bounce back after a 4-2 loss to the Royals on October 7. This game marks the third in the series, with both teams taking a game at Yankee Stadium to open this series.

The Yankees, boasting the 3rd-best offense in MLB, lead the league in home runs and are primed to challenge Royals starter Seth Lugo. Lugo, ranked 66th among starting pitchers, has been solid this season with a 3.00 ERA, though his 3.83 xFIP suggests some overperformance. Despite this, his 5.7% walk rate could help neutralize the Yankees' patient approach at the plate, as New York ranks 1st in walks.

On the other side, Clarke Schmidt takes the mound for New York. Ranked 53rd among starting pitchers, Schmidt's 2.85 ERA is commendable, though his 3.92 xFIP indicates potential regression. The Royals will look to capitalize on Schmidt's struggles, particularly as their offense ranks 9th in batting average. They will aim to exploit Schmidt's tendency to allow hits, as projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Both bullpens are strong, with Kansas City ranked 9th and New York 10th in Power Rankings. The Royals' bullpen is notably better than their year-to-date performance suggests. The betting markets see a tight contest, with Kansas City having a 49% implied win probability and a projected team total of 3.95 runs. This game promises to be a tactical battle as both teams vie for a crucial edge in the series.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Clarke Schmidt is projected to throw 69 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Michael Massey, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 92 games (+12.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 110 games (+17.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+13.80 Units / 31% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Game 3 Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.34 vs Kansas City Royals 4.69

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