New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 5/1/2024

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
• Run Line: Yankees 1.5 -155, Orioles -1.5 135
• Money Line: Yankees 135, Orioles -160
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Yankees - 41%
• Baltimore Orioles - 59%

Projected Win %:

• New York Yankees - 43.25%
• Baltimore Orioles - 56.75%

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League East matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will be hosting the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 1, 2024. The Orioles, with a season record of 19-10, are having a great season, while the Yankees are close behind with a 19-12 record.

The Orioles, as the home team, will look to maintain their winning momentum in front of their home crowd. The Yankees, on the other hand, will aim to secure a crucial victory on the road to keep pace in the division standings.

The starting pitchers for this game will be Corbin Burnes for the Orioles and Luis Gil for the Yankees. Burnes, a right-handed pitcher, has been impressive this season and is ranked as the #20 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gil, also a right-handed pitcher, is ranked as the #72 best starting pitcher in MLB.

Burnes, with a win/loss record of 3-0, has been dominant on the mound with an ERA of 2.55, which is excellent. However, his 3.36 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could regress going forward. Gil, with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 4.01, has shown potential but has been unlucky according to his 2.57 xERA.

Both pitchers are projected to deliver average performances today. Burnes is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 6.3 batters on average. However, he may struggle with allowing hits and walks. Gil, projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, is expected to allow 2.5 earned runs, strike out 5.8 batters, but also struggle with hits and walks.

When it comes to offense, the Orioles rank as the 4th best in MLB this season, showcasing their strong batting lineup. However, their team batting average (ranked 14th), home runs (ranked 17th), and stolen bases (ranked 17th) suggest an average performance in these areas. The Yankees, ranked as the 5th best offense in MLB, have displayed power with their home run production (ranked 8th) but have struggled with their team batting average (ranked 29th) and stolen bases (ranked 20th).

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the betting favorite with a moneyline of -160, implying a 59% chance of winning. The Yankees are seen as the underdog with a moneyline of +135, implying a 41% chance of winning.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Luis Gil will record an average of 6.1 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Aaron Judge's 26.9% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) is in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes's cut-fastball percentage has fallen by 10.4% from last year to this one (55.4% to 45%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jordan Westburg's speed has dropped off this year. His 28.9 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.33 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Baltimore Orioles offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 113 games (+19.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.40 Units / 36% ROI)
• Corbin Burnes has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 5 games (+5.25 Units / 89% ROI)

Yankees vs Orioles Prediction: Yankees 4.21 - Orioles 4.58

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