New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the New York Mets on September 13, 2024, this National League East matchup carries significant weight. The Phillies, sitting at 88-58, are looking to solidify their place in the postseason picture, while the Mets, at 80-66, are aiming to stay competitive in the Wild Card race. This game marks the first in their series, and both teams will be keen to make an early statement.

In their last outing, the Phillies faced a tough opponent but showcased their strong offensive firepower, maintaining their status as the 4th best offense in MLB. Aaron Nola, projected to start for Philadelphia, has had an impressive season with a 3.41 ERA. While his advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 40th best starter—indicating solid capability—he's expected to pitch around 5.9 innings today, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs. The projections suggest that he could see some struggles, particularly with his tendency to allow an average of 5.1 hits and 1.1 walks, which could be concerning against a potent Mets lineup.

On the other side, New York will counter with Jose Quintana, who has struggled this season, evident in his 4.09 ERA and projections that indicate he is likely to allow 2.9 earned runs over an average of 5.0 innings. Quintana’s performance has been mediocre, and the Phillies' potent offense could exploit his weaknesses, especially considering he has been allowing 5.5 hits and 1.8 walks per outing.

The Phillies come into this contest as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160 and an implied team total of 4.70 runs. Given their strong offensive metrics and Nola's capabilities, they appear poised to take advantage and secure the win against a Mets team that will need to be at its best to compete.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

This year, Jose Quintana has introduced a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), utilizing it on 5.2% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Francisco Alvarez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 88.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (J.D. Martinez, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, D.J. Stewart).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Over his last 3 GS, Aaron Nola has produced a notable rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2303 rpm over the entire season to 2366 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Trea Turner has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .296 rate is a good deal higher than his .258 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 55 games (+13.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 88 games (+12.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.26 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.07

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.