New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 5/5/2024

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will face off against the New York Mets in an Interleague matchup at Tropicana Field. The Rays, with a record of 16-18, are having a below-average season, while the Mets, with a record of 16-17, are also struggling. This game is the third in the series between these two teams.

The Rays will be the home team, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot has started six games this season, boasting a 3-2 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.12. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pepiot is ranked as the #44 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his skill and effectiveness on the mound.

On the other side, the Mets will send Luis Severino to the mound. Severino, also a right-handed pitcher, has started six games this season, with a 2-2 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 2.31. However, his 3.67 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.

In terms of offense, the Rays rank as the #22 best team in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking #9 in the league, and team home runs, ranking an impressive #4. They also have a strong presence on the base paths, ranking #2 in team stolen bases. The Mets, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking #17 in MLB. They struggle in team batting average, ranking #24, but perform decently in team home runs, ranking #11, and stolen bases, ranking #15.

Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Rays ranked #12 and the Mets ranked #14 according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the game could remain competitive throughout.

The current odds favor the Rays, with a moneyline set at -125 and an implied win probability of 53%. The Mets, with a moneyline of +105, have an implied win probability of 47%. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

Based on the projections, Pepiot is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters. Severino, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino's 95.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 89th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brett Baty is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Mets have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 13.9° angle is among the highest in the majors since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot has recorded 17.3 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ben Rortvedt stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Tampa Bay Rays bats jointly rank among the elite in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (5th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games (+11.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 110 games (+14.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 32 games (+7.65 Units / 23% ROI)

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.07 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.18

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