New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Lucchesi - Mets
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League East matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on May 15, 2024. The Phillies, with an impressive record of 30-13 this season, are having a great year and currently sit atop the division. On the other hand, the Mets are struggling with a below-average record of 19-22.

The Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who has been a standout performer this season. Suarez boasts a perfect 7-0 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 1.50. However, his 2.52 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress going forward. Despite this, Suarez is expected to pitch around 6.0 innings and allow an average of 2.2 earned runs per game.

Opposing Suarez will be Joey Lucchesi, also a left-handed pitcher for the Mets. Lucchesi has an average projection, with a projected 5.1 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed per game. His strikeout projection is below average, while his hits and walks projections are both considered terrible.

In their last game, the Phillies faced the Mets and secured a dominant victory, winning 4-0. The Phillies' offense ranks among the best in MLB this season, holding the second spot overall. Their batting average ranks eighth, while their home run and stolen base rankings are average and good, respectively.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are heavily favored to win this game, with a projected win probability of 61%. The Mets, on the other hand, face an uphill battle with a projected win probability of 39%.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, both teams will need to rely on their pitching and defense to keep the score tight. The Phillies are the clear betting favorites with a moneyline of -195, implying a 64% chance of winning. The Mets, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 36%.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Typically, bats like Starling Marte who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ranger Suarez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

New York Mets batters collectively rank among the best in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (5th-) in regard to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over flyball batters, Ranger Suarez and his 51.4% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today's matchup being matched up with 2 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Joey Lucchesi doesn't generate many whiffs (16th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Edmundo Sosa pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 30 games (+14.90 Units / 41% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 40 games (+7.25 Units / 17% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 3.62 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.41

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