There are six days left of games for the 2020 MLB season, but my regular season stops here. The cherry picking of MLB games has not gone well over the last several days without doing my normal written due diligence with the card. As I go through the researching and writing process, I often find things that I missed or didn’t realize that become edges for the plays. Right now, that isn’t happening.
A big part of this is the mental handicap to me. I feel like I’m just guessing with betting late-September baseball in a traditional season. Some teams care, some teams don’t. Some teams are doing different things in preparation for future seasons than other teams. Prices are inflated across the market and it is hard to find equity betting on the bad teams with no playoff aspirations. Usually, I’ve shut things down by now, but I tried to press forward with the content with the move to a new site and the increased interest in the playoff races.
I’ve talked about this before, but self-awareness is an important attribute for any and all handicappers. You have to know your strengths and weaknesses, but to borrow from the late Kenny Rogers, you have to know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em. When your edge dries up or your time gets limited, you can’t chase bets for any reason. There are a few respected betting syndicates out there that will only bet half of the season because their edges get smaller by the middle of the season and they know it.
By no means am I on that level. I’m simply illustrating the point that things change. Sports overlap. You’re better off trying to pick off an immature market or at least a market that yields more positive expectations. Baseball right now is yielding little to no positive expectation for me.
I’ll be back with some series previews for the playoffs, but won’t have the daily article for the remainder of the regular season. I may bring it back for the playoffs, which will be a postseason grind for everybody in the bubbles with no days off. Maybe that will yield some opportunities.
After a fine start to the season in July, things didn’t wind up as I had hoped. August was brutal. September was full of ups and downs until football really took hold and my time and passion for baseball were cut down. These betting markets are hard to beat and if you aren’t fully invested in them to do the research and the work, they will chew you up and spit you out. A few 50/50 games fell on the wrong side of variance that would have left me around even, but those didn’t come in.
If nothing else, from reading this first at BangTheBook and now at ATS, I hope I’ve given you some different metrics to consider and some different handicapping methods. At least you may watch the game or interpret data a little bit differently now. Maybe you thought it was all BS and dismissed it, but read the article to fade me. At least you got something out of it if you did.
I’ll have one last regular season edition of The Bettor’s Box this morning and I’ll have another one to kick off the playoffs next Tuesday.
I’m sorry things didn’t end well. Posting -8.14 units over the last week got out of hand and is a primary reason why I’m making the decision to shut this down. It became clear to me that I was doing myself and my readers a disservice by continuing forward. Prior to that, the results had some peaks and valleys, but were acceptable. The last week has been unacceptable and I’d be shocked if the tables turned during this last week of games.
I appreciate each and every reader of the daily article, especially those that followed the move here to ATS. I look forward to starting with a clean slate in the spring, which will hopefully include a more traditional Spring Training and start to the season.
For now, please enjoy all of our other ATS content, which includes MLB stuff from Allen Moody and Vincent Senick and all sorts of football, basketball, hockey, and soccer articles, as well as some updates on great sportsbook promotions and all of our industry coverage.