Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are set to take on the Toronto Blue Jays on May 11, 2024, at Rogers Centre. This American League matchup will see the Blue Jays, the home team, hosting the Twins.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman, who has been an above-average pitcher this season according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started seven games, with a win/loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.78. However, his xERA suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward.

On the mound for the Twins will be right-handed pitcher Simeon Woods Richard. While Richard has a solid ERA of 1.74 this season, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him a below-average pitcher by MLB standards. His xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB this season, while the Twins offense ranks 10th. However, the Blue Jays have an impressive team batting average, ranking 5th in the league, while the Twins rank 22nd in this category. The Twins have shown power at the plate, ranking 7th in home runs, while the Blue Jays rank 15th.

The Blue Jays will look to bounce back from their recent struggles as they face a tough opponent in the Twins. However, with Gausman on the mound, the Blue Jays have a chance to turn their season around. The Twins, riding high on their strong record, will aim to continue their winning streak.

With the Blue Jays being the betting favorites, the Twins have an opportunity to prove themselves as underdogs. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Due to his large reverse platoon split, Simeon Woods Richardson will have a tough challenge being matched up with 7 bats in the projected lineup who share the same handedness in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Alex Kirilloff has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2195 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2254 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Alejandro Kirk's speed has gotten better this year. His 23.66 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.39 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+11.04 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+12.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+12.80 Units / 63% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.99 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.69

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