Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 4/10/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will host the Minnesota Twins on April 10, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a critical matchup for both teams, as they sit in the middle of the American League Central standings. The Royals currently hold a record of 6-6, while the Twins are struggling at 4-8. This series marks the fourth meeting between the two clubs this season, and both teams are looking to gain momentum.

In their last game, the Royals fell short against the Twins, losing 4-0 at home. The Royals will rely on Michael Wacha, who has had an average season thus far, with a 4.66 ERA and a xFIP of 5.17, suggesting he may have been a bit lucky in his outings. Wacha has started two games this season but is still searching for his first win, currently sitting at 0-2. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.5 earned runs, but his high walk rate of 12.2% could be problematic against the Twins, who are the least patient hitters in baseball.

On the other side, Bailey Ober takes the mound for Minnesota. While he boasts a higher ranking at 47th among MLB starters, Ober’s struggles are evident with a 12.15 ERA. His xFIP of 5.36 indicates he might improve soon, but his current form is concerning. Ober’s high flyball rate could be an issue against a Royals lineup that has struggled to generate power, ranking 29th in home runs.

Betting markets have set the Royals as slight favorites, reflecting a close contest. With the Royals projected to score an average of 4.10 runs and the Twins at 3.90, this matchup could hinge on which pitcher can better navigate his respective lineup. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair is expected.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Out of all SPs, Bailey Ober's fastball velocity of 91.6 mph is in the 16th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ryan Jeffers has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 97-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball hitters like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 32 games (+16.25 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 94 games (+14.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 62% ROI)

• Date: April 10, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

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