Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 4/30/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Mike Soroka - White Sox
• Run Line: Twins -1.5 -110, White Sox 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Twins -165, White Sox 145
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 60%
• Chicago White Sox - 40%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 54.76%
• Chicago White Sox - 45.24%

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League Central matchup, the Chicago White Sox will host the Minnesota Twins at Guaranteed Rate Field on April 30, 2024. The White Sox, with a disappointing record of 6-23 this season, are having a tough time, while the Twins are performing above average with a 15-13 record.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mike Soroka, who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Soroka is ranked as the #197 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the worst in the league. In six starts this year, Soroka has yet to secure a win, with an ERA of 6.83. However, his 5.86 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

Opposing Soroka will be right-handed pitcher Simeon Woods Richard of the Twins. Woods Richard has started two games this year and has a record of 1-0 with an impressive ERA of 2.45. However, his 3.61 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future outings.

The White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking as the worst in MLB. Their team batting average ranks 22nd, while their home run and stolen base rankings are also low. On the other hand, the Twins offense ranks 12th in MLB, with a solid ranking in team home runs. However, their team batting average and stolen base rankings are not as strong.

Taking into account the current odds, the Twins are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 60%, while the White Sox are the underdogs with a 40% win probability. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs.

Overall, the Twins have the advantage in this matchup with their stronger offense and more reliable starting pitcher. However, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given day. The White Sox will look to defy the odds and turn their season around with a strong performance at home.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson was firing on all cylinders in his previous outing and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Bashing 3 long-balls over the last 7 days, Carlos Santana has been on fire recently.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Mike Soroka has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -9.0 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Martin Maldonado in the 1st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Chicago White Sox projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-weakest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 134 games (+11.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+12.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Eloy Jimenez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+12.70 Units / 141% ROI)

Twins vs White Sox Prediction: Twins 4.97 - White Sox 4.26

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