Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 5/3/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on May 3, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the standings. The Red Sox currently sit at 18-16, enjoying an above-average season, while the Twins languish at 13-20, having struggled significantly. In their previous matchup, the Red Sox emerged victorious in a tightly contested game, showcasing their potent offense.

The Red Sox will send Hunter Dobbins to the mound, who has been effective this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA. However, advanced projections indicate that Dobbins may have been a bit lucky, as his 3.45 xFIP suggests potential regression. He is projected to pitch only 4.6 innings on average, which raises concerns about the bullpen's workload against a struggling Twins lineup.

On the other side, Bailey Ober takes the hill for the Twins. With a 3-1 record and a 4.13 ERA, Ober has been solid but not spectacular. His low strikeout rate of 17.7% could be a double-edged sword against a Red Sox offense that ranks 2nd in MLB in strikeouts. However, Ober’s good control (5.0 BB%) may help him navigate through a lineup that is known for being patient.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 6th in MLB, boasting a robust lineup that has produced 4.81 runs per game according to the projections. In contrast, the Twins sit at 20th, struggling to generate consistent offense with a team batting average that ranks 21st. This stark contrast in offensive capabilities highlights the uphill battle the Twins face.

As the game approaches, the Red Sox appear to have the edge, especially with their potent offense and a bullpen ranked 5th in MLB, compared to the Twins' average 11th-ranked bullpen. If Dobbins can navigate the early innings effectively, the Red Sox should capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Given that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Bailey Ober (42.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Carlos Correa has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 97.2-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Extreme flyball hitters like Alex Bregman usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jarren Duran has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 5.03, Boston Red Sox 5.09

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox

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