Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Pick & Prediction – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in a critical matchup in the American League Central. With the Guardians holding a strong 87-65 record and the Twins at 80-71, this game could have significant implications for playoff positioning. The Twins won the last meeting between these teams on Tuesday, which should set the stage for a huge matchup here tonight.

Tanner Bibee is set to take the mound for Cleveland, boasting a respectable 3.60 ERA and a 11-8 record over 29 starts this season. Bibee projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters, which suggests he can handle the Twins' lineup effectively. However, the right-hander has shown vulnerability, allowing an average of 4.4 hits and 1.4 walks per game, which may provide Minnesota with scoring opportunities.

On the other side, Bailey Ober will start for the Twins. With a 12-7 record and a 3.90 ERA, Ober's xERA of 3.21 indicates he might have faced some bad luck this season. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out around 4.4 batters—numbers that suggest he could face challenges against a Guardians offense that ranks 17th overall but has shown flashes of power, ranking 13th in home runs.

While the Guardians' offense has been inconsistent, Angel Martinez has emerged as their best hitter over the last week, recording 7 hits in 4 games with a stellar .500 batting average. Conversely, Kyle Farmer has been the Twins' standout, hitting .417 with 5 hits in his last 5 games.

Given the Guardians' strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, they have a slight edge in this matchup, especially with the betting lines favoring them at -115. The low game total of 7.5 runs suggests a close contest, but Cleveland's solid play should carry them to a narrow victory in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a significant edge over flyball bats, Bailey Ober and his 41.8% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today's outing matching up with 3 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Cleveland (#2-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 9.84 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.60 — a 0.25 K/9 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Josh Naylor has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.1 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.26

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.