Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Pick For 7/8/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 8, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On July 8, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Minnesota Twins at Guaranteed Rate Field in an American League Central matchup. The White Sox are mired in a tough season with a record of 26-66, while the Twins are having a strong campaign at 51-39. Chicago will send Chris Flexen to the mound, who has struggled this year with a 2-7 record and a 5.08 ERA, ranking as the 290th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Flexen has been unlucky, as his 4.48 xERA suggests he may perform better moving forward.

On the flip side, Chris Paddack will start for Minnesota. Paddack holds a 5-3 record with a 5.29 ERA, but his 4.03 xFIP implies he too has been unfortunate and might see some improvement. Despite his below-average performance, Paddack faces a White Sox offense that ranks 29th in MLB in both overall offense and team batting average, and 27th in home runs.

Flexen's high-flyball tendencies could spell trouble against the Twins' powerful offense, which ranks 4th overall and 6th in home runs. This contrast gives Minnesota a significant edge, particularly given Flexen's propensity to allow flyballs (38% FB rate).

Additionally, both bullpens present a stark contrast. The Twins' bullpen ranks 5th in MLB, while the White Sox's bullpen sits at 28th. This disparity could play a crucial role in close or high-scoring games.

Lenyn Sosa has been a bright spot for Chicago over the past week, posting a .440 batting average and a 1.120 OPS. However, Jose Miranda has been even more impressive for Minnesota, hitting .700 with a 1.777 OPS over the same period.

Given the overall mismatch in team strength, the Twins are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -185 and an implied win probability of 63%. The White Sox, on the other hand, sit at +160 with a 37% implied win probability. With a projected game total of 9.5 runs, expect plenty of action, particularly with these teams' contrasting offenses and pitching matchups.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Over his last 3 starts, Chris Paddack has seen a sizeable decline in his fastball velocity: from 92.8 mph over the whole season to 91.6 mph in recent games.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected batting order today (.312 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .326 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Generating 14.8 outs per outing this year on average, Chris Flexen places in the 18th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Tommy Pham has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 24 games at home (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 5.26 vs Chicago White Sox 4.39

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