Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 9/26/2024

• Date: September 26, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As we approach the final days of the regular season, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 26, 2024, at PNC Park. This National League Central matchup features two teams in contrasting situations. The Brewers, with a solid 90-68 record, have had a successful season, while the Pirates, sitting at 74-84, have struggled and are out of playoff contention.

The Brewers come into this game having faced a tough last week, while the Pirates will try to capitalize on their home-field advantage. On the mound, Pittsburgh will start Mitch Keller, who holds an 11-11 record with a 4.21 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Keller ranks as the 183rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating a challenging season. His control, however, might be a key factor against the Brewers' high-walk offense.

Milwaukee counters with Aaron Civale, who also hasn't had the most stellar season, with a 7-9 record and a 4.53 ERA. The projections suggest Civale may have an edge against Pittsburgh's power-deficient lineup, given his high-flyball tendencies. This could be crucial as the Pirates rank 26th in home runs this year.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled, ranking 28th overall, while Milwaukee boasts the 10th best offense. The Brewers' ability to get on base and their aggressive baserunning, with a 3rd place ranking in stolen bases, could pose significant challenges for the Pirates.

Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Brewers slightly favored. However, with the Pirates' implied team total at 3.90 runs, there's an argument to be made for potential value if they can exploit Civale's vulnerabilities. As the series progresses, every game becomes a chess match of strategy and execution.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Over his previous 3 outings, Aaron Civale has suffered a big decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2610 rpm over the whole season to 2552 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The 7.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #22 offense in the majors this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to average, Mitch Keller has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 4.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.2% rate (82nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+7.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 153 games (+9.40 Units / 6% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.96 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.6

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.