Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 6/5/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Ashby - Brewers
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to take on the Milwaukee Brewers in a National League matchup on June 5, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with a season record of 43-19, are having a great season, while the Brewers, with a record of 36-25, are also performing well.

The Phillies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola, who has been one of the top pitchers in the league. In 12 starts this year, Nola has a 7-2 record with an impressive 3.03 ERA. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that Nola may have been lucky this season, as his peripheral indicators, such as SIERA and FIP, indicate that he is likely to perform worse going forward.

On the other hand, the Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Aaron Ashby, who has struggled this season. In just one start, Ashby has a 0-1 record with a high 9.82 ERA. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ashby is considered a below-average pitcher.

The Phillies offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 5th best in MLB. They excel in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 8th and 10th respectively. Meanwhile, the Brewers have the 3rd best offense in the league, despite ranking low in team batting average and home runs.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the favorites with a high implied team total of 5.10 runs. THE BAT X projects the Phillies to score an average of 4.71 runs in this game. The Brewers have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs, with THE BAT X projecting them to score an average of 4.22 runs.

THE BAT X projects the Phillies to have a win probability of 58%, making them the favorites in this game, while the Brewers have a win probability of 42%. However, the projections suggest that the Brewers may have a higher chance of winning than what the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the underdog.

Overall, the Phillies have the advantage with a strong offense and a solid starting pitcher. However, the Brewers cannot be counted out, as they have been performing well this season. It will be an exciting matchup between two competitive teams.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jake Bauers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Aaron Nola has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.8 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cristian Pache's speed has improved this season. His 27.84 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.39 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 56 games (+17.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+7.89 Units / 10% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+11.00 Units / 20% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.19 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.56

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