Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/22/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers face off at Wrigley Field on July 22, 2024, in a National League Central matchup. The Cubs, currently at 48-53, are experiencing a below-average season, while the Brewers, at 57-42, are having a great year. This series opener sees both teams sending right-handed pitchers to the mound: Javier Assad for the Cubs and Tobias Myers for the Brewers.

Assad, who has started 17 games this year with a 4-3 record and a strong 3.27 ERA, has been fortunate according to his 4.37 xFIP. He projects to pitch 3.5 innings, allowing 1.7 earned runs, and striking out 3 batters. However, his projections for hits and walks allowed are concerning, suggesting he might struggle to contain the Brewers' offense. On the other side, Myers, with a 6-3 record and an excellent 3.13 ERA, also appears to have been lucky, as indicated by his 4.03 xFIP. He is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 4.7 batters.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 19th in MLB, but their team batting average and home run ranks (22nd and 20th respectively) suggest some struggles at the plate. They do excel in stolen bases, ranking 10th. The Brewers, however, boast the 8th best offense, ranking 4th in team batting average and 2nd in stolen bases, which could pose a significant challenge for Assad and the Cubs' bullpen, which ranks 28th in the league.

The Brewers' bullpen, though not elite, ranks 21st and is relatively better than the Cubs'. Given the offensive and pitching dynamics, the Brewers look stronger on paper, and their slight edge in implied win probability at -115 (51%) supports this. Today's game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a close contest is likely, but Milwaukee’s stronger season and offensive prowess give them the upper hand.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the best among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Willy Adames has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10.8% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Javier Assad to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 68 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Dansby Swanson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 92.5-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 88 games (+7.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.75 vs Chicago Cubs 4.63

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