Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 4/11/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On April 11, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field for the first game of their series. Both teams come into this matchup with identical records of 7-6, indicating a competitive spirit as they aim to maintain their above-average seasons. The Diamondbacks currently rank 2nd in MLB in offensive performance, while the Brewers rank 12th, suggesting a significant disparity in firepower.

Expect the Diamondbacks to send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound, despite his challenging start to the season, holding a 0-1 record with a troubling 6.10 ERA. However, his xFIP of 2.07 suggests he’s been unlucky and may see improvement soon. Rodriguez’s projections indicate he’s likely to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing about 2.5 earned runs but potentially struggling with hits and walks, which could be pivotal against a Brewers lineup that ranks around the middle of the pack offensively.

On the other side, the Brewers are slated to start Jose Quintana, who has been considerably less effective, ranked among the worst in MLB. Quintana's projections show him possibly pitching only 4.8 innings while giving up 2.6 earned runs, along with high expected hits and walks—factors that could severely limit his effectiveness.

Given the Diamondbacks’ edge in both offensive rankings and starting pitching, they appear well-positioned to take the advantage in this matchup, especially with Rodriguez looking to break through after a rough start.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Jose Quintana has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 7.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #24 group of hitters in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Placing in the 82nd percentile, Eduardo Rodriguez has put up a 25.2% K% since the start of last season.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

Eugenio Suarez has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 97-mph average to last year's 89-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Randal Grichuk hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Randal Grichuk has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+3.80 Units / 76% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

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