Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet – 6/4/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On June 4, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park. This National League matchup features two teams having great seasons. The Phillies currently hold a record of 42-19, while the Brewers boast a record of 36-24.

The Phillies, as the home team, will look to continue their success in this game. They are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sanchez is ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers.

In his last start, Sanchez pitched a gem, going 6 innings with no earned runs, 7 strikeouts, 4 hits, and 1 walk. However, it's worth noting that his peripheral indicators suggest he may have been lucky this season and could potentially regress in future performances.

The Brewers will counter with right-handed pitcher Colin Rea. Rea has started 11 games this season and holds a record of 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA. While his numbers are solid, his peripheral indicators suggest that he may have been fortunate this season and could potentially see a decline in performance going forward.

The Phillies offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 4th best in MLB. Their best hitter, Bryce Harper, has been a key contributor with 35 runs, 44 RBIs, and 14 home runs. In their last game against the Brewers, the Phillies came out on top with a 3-1 victory, where Harper played a significant role.

On the other hand, the Brewers offense ranks as the 3rd best in MLB. Their best hitter, William Contreras, has been a force with 48 runs, 44 RBIs, and 8 home runs. However, the team's batting average and home run rankings are relatively low compared to other teams.

Based on the projections, the Phillies are the favorites to win this game with a 63% win probability, while the Brewers have a 37% chance of pulling off an upset. The Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.77 runs, while the Brewers have a lower implied team total of 3.73 runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Colin Rea will tally an average of 4 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Milwaukee Brewers have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Schwarber has big-time HR ability (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea doesn't generate many whiffs (20th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 48 games (+17.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 60 games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.05 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.11

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