Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 6/17/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 17, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodriguez - Brewers
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off in an intriguing Interleague matchup on June 17, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels, who have struggled this season with a record of 28-43, will look to turn things around against the Brewers, who boast an impressive 42-29 record. Despite their contrasting seasons, the betting markets project this game to be a close one.

The Angels, who last played on June 15, 2024, will send Jose Soriano to the mound. Soriano has been one of the few bright spots for the Angels this year, with a solid 3.48 ERA over 11 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Soriano is ranked as the 67th best starting pitcher, indicating he is above average. However, his projected stats for this game are mixed; he’s expected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs, which is good, but his projected 4.9 strikeouts and 4.8 hits allowed are less impressive.

The Brewers will counter with Carlos Rodriguez, who has had a tough start to his season with a 4.91 ERA over just one start. However, his xFIP of 2.93 suggests he has been unlucky and could improve moving forward. Rodriguez is projected to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, which is average. His below-average strikeout projection of 4.4 and high walk rate of 1.5 per game are concerns.

Offensively, the Brewers hold a significant edge. Milwaukee's offense ranks 4th in MLB in both overall performance and team batting average. The Brewers also excel in team stolen bases, ranking 3rd. In contrast, the Angels' offense is more middle-of-the-pack, with their best rankings being 8th in home runs and 7th in stolen bases.

Bullpen performance could be a decisive factor in this game. The Angels' bullpen is ranked as the worst in MLB, while the Brewers' bullpen is ranked 7th. This disparity suggests that Milwaukee could capitalize in the later innings.

Mickey Moniak has been a standout for the Angels over the last week, hitting .389 with a 1.278 OPS. Meanwhile, Willy Adames has been the Brewers' best hitter, boasting a 1.085 OPS with three home runs and eight RBIs over his last six games.

With both teams projected to score an average of 4.25 runs, this game looks to be a tight contest. However, given the Brewers' superior bullpen and overall stronger season, they might have the edge in this matchup. Expect a compelling game as these two teams go head-to-head.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

With 6 batters who share the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Carlos Rodriguez ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brice Turang is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kevin Pillar pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 48 games (+6.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 65 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 38 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.4 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.25

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