Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 4/27/2025

Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On April 27, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Miami Marlins at T-Mobile Park for the third game of their interleague series. The Mariners are currently enjoying a solid season with a record of 15-12, while the Marlins sit at a below-average 12-14. In their most recent encounter, the Mariners secured a tight victory, showcasing their offensive power.

Seattle is projected to start Bryce Miller, who has had a somewhat challenging season with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 4.21. However, advanced metrics suggest that he has been unlucky, as his xERA sits at 3.68, indicating potential for improvement. Miller's ability to pitch an average of 6.1 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs is a promising sign against a Marlins lineup that ranks 5th in fewest walks drawn this season, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, Miami will counter with Max Meyer, who has performed well, boasting a 2-2 record and an impressive 2.10 ERA. Yet, projections indicate that his ERA may not be sustainable, as his xERA is higher at 3.19. Meyer’s low walk rate of 5.8% could neutralize the Mariners' strength in drawing walks, which is the best in MLB.

While the Mariners rank 9th in overall offense and 6th in home runs, they struggle with a 21st ranking in batting average, suggesting they can hit for power but may not be consistent. The Marlins, meanwhile, rank 4th in batting average but are 22nd in home runs, indicating a reliance on contact rather than power.

With a low game total of 7.5 runs and the Mariners favored at -150, the projections suggest that Seattle has a good chance to capitalize on their offensive strengths and Miller's potential for a bounce-back performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jesus Sanchez may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jesus Sanchez has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Bryce Miller (37.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in Miami's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bats such as Jorge Polanco with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Max Meyer who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Seattle Mariners have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dylan Moore, Luke Raley, Cal Raleigh).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 94% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+14.30 Units / 71% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.57, Seattle Mariners 4.01

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.