Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/27/2024

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Miami Marlins on June 27, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. This National League East clash features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Phillies, boasting a 53-27 record, sit comfortably atop the division, while the Marlins, at 28-52, languish near the bottom.

Zack Wheeler, the Phillies' ace, will take the mound. Ranked 11th among MLB starters by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wheeler has been stellar this season with an 8-4 record and a 2.84 ERA. His last outing on June 22 saw him dominate the opposition, pitching seven innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts another strong performance from Wheeler, projecting him to allow just 2.1 earned runs over 5.8 innings.

Trevor Rogers, on the other hand, gets the start for Miami. It's been a challenging season for Rogers, who carries a 1-8 record and a troubling 5.09 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest some bad luck, as evidenced by his 4.47 xFIP. Rogers will need to rely on his groundball tendencies to stymie a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 5th in homers this season.

Offensively, the Phillies are firing on all cylinders. Led by Bryce Harper, who has a .305 batting average and 20 home runs, they rank 4th in overall offense, 3rd in team batting average, 5th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Harper has been particularly hot lately, hitting .500 with three homers and nine RBIs over the past week.

In contrast, the Marlins have struggled mightily at the plate, ranking 29th in overall offense. Jazz Chisholm, their best hitter, has been a bright spot with a .264 average and 14 stolen bases, but the team ranks near the bottom in home runs and batting average. Nick Gordon has been their standout performer over the last week, batting .278 with a .889 OPS.

Given the disparities in pitching and offense, it’s no surprise the Phillies are massive favorites with a moneyline of -300, implying a 72% win probability. The BAT X projects them to score 5.31 runs, a very high projection compared to the Marlins' 3.72. With such a favorable matchup, expect the Phillies to extend their winning ways.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 7 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Trevor Rogers will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Otto Lopez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Rafael Marchan will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Trevor Rogers in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 62 games (+19.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 away games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.72 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.31

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