Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Pick – 4/7/2025

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On April 7, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins at Citi Field in a National League East matchup. The Mets are off to a strong start this season with a 6-3 record, while the Marlins are slightly behind at 5-4. In their most recent games, the Mets secured a narrow victory over the Blue Jays, winning 2-1 yesterday, while Miami had Sunday's game against the Atlanta Braves postponed.

Mets pitcher Kodai Senga will take the mound, looking to improve on his 0-1 record this season. Despite his winless record, Senga has shown promise, boasting a solid 3.60 ERA and an impressive 1.28 xFIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky this year. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings today, allowing approximately 1.8 earned runs while striking out 7.3 batters on average, which suggests he could be in for a strong performance.

On the other side, the Marlins will rely on Tyler Phillips, who has struggled in his brief appearances this season. Phillips is projected to pitch only 4.2 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs, with a concerning strikeout projection of just 3.1 batters. His last start was particularly rough, where he allowed 6 earned runs in a mere 1 inning of work, raising questions about his effectiveness against a Mets lineup that will be eager to capitalize on any mistakes.

The Mets are currently favored with a moneyline of -245, reflecting their strong start and the potential mismatch in pitching. With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, it is clear that expectations are for a tightly contested battle, but the Mets appear poised to maintain their momentum against a Marlins team struggling to find consistency.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Tyler Phillips has put up a .324 BABIP since the start of last season, a sign that he has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play with improved performance likely coming.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Xavier Edwards's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86-mph EV last season has dropped to 79.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Stowers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Kodai Senga (34.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 4 GB hitters in Miami's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball batters like Brett Baty are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Connor Gillispie.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 2nd-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 125 games (+18.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 away games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Phillips - Marlins
  • Kodai Senga - Mets

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