Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 9/26/2024

• Date: September 26, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins
  • David Festa - Twins

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Miami Marlins at Target Field on September 26, 2024, they hold a distinct advantage in this interleague matchup. The Twins, boasting an 82-76 record, are in the hunt for a playoff spot and have shown themselves to be an above-average team this season. In contrast, the Marlins, with a dismal 58-100 record, are enduring a rough year and have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

The Twins' offense, ranked 11th according to talent-based projections, faces off against a Marlins squad that ranks 29th. This disparity is mirrored on the mound, where Minnesota's David Festa, despite a below-average 4.80 ERA, is backed by a solid 3.56 xFIP, indicating potential for improvement. Festa's last outing didn't include any standout performances like a no-hitter or shutout, but his #83 position among starting pitchers suggests he's above average.

Meanwhile, Miami's Valente Bellozo has benefited from luck this season, with a 3.82 ERA that doesn't align with his 5.44 xFIP. His projections for today are less favorable, suggesting he may struggle against a competent Twins lineup. Despite Bellozo's respectable win-loss record, his projections for earned runs, innings pitched, and strikeouts aren't promising.

The Twins' Trevor Larnach is currently their hottest hitter, with a .412 batting average over the last week. On the Marlins' side, Jake Burger has been a bright spot, hitting .333 with three home runs in his last six games. Nonetheless, the Twins are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -245, reflecting a 68% implied win probability. Given the Marlins' struggles and Bellozo's likely regression, the Twins appear well-positioned to take the third game of this series.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Valente Bellozo is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jonah Bride is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kyle Stowers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

With 6 bats of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, David Festa figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Trevor Larnach is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 5th-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Minnesota Twins.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 90 games (+11.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 68 away games (+13.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 48% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.2 vs Minnesota Twins 5.46

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.