Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Pick & Prediction – 6/15/2024

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins gear up for the second game of their National League East series on June 15, 2024, at Nationals Park. Both teams are struggling this season; the Nationals hold a 33-36 record, while the Marlins are floundering with a 23-46 mark. Washington is the slight favorite with a moneyline set at -120, implying a 52% chance of victory.

Starting on the mound for the Nationals is left-hander DJ Herz, who has had a rough start to his MLB tenure this year. In his two starts, Herz has posted a 6.48 ERA, though his 5.40 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky. He projects to pitch 4.7 innings and give up 2.4 earned runs, which is average. Herz's high-flyball tendency (46% flyball rate) might play to his advantage against a weak Marlins offense ranked 28th in home runs.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with lefty Trevor Rogers. Rogers has a 5.37 ERA across 13 starts this season, and like Herz, his 4.41 xFIP indicates some bad luck. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecast Rogers to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. Rogers' high-groundball rate (49%) may neutralize the Nationals' lack of power—they rank 29th in home runs.

Both offenses have struggled mightily. The Nationals rank 25th overall, 21st in batting average, but lead the league in stolen bases. The Marlins aren't any better, sitting at 29th overall in offensive power with the 20th best batting average. In terms of bullpen performance, Washington's relievers rank 28th, while Miami's are slightly better but still subpar at 23rd.

Recent form could play a role here. Nationals' Joey Meneses is red-hot, boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.321 OPS over the last week. The Marlins' Tim Anderson is also scorching, with a .563 average and a 1.125 OPS in the same span.

Given the weak offenses and struggling pitchers, betting markets project a close game with the Nationals slightly favored. The total runs are set at 8.5, indicating an average scoring game. With Herz's high-flyball rate and facing a powerless Marlins lineup, Washington might just have the slight edge they need to secure the win.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Recording 14.3 outs per start this year on average, Trevor Rogers checks in at the 13th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Dane Myers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Emmanuel Rivera has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jacob Young's speed has declined this year. His 30 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.52 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Washington Nationals projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-weakest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 60 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 away games (+9.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.5 vs Washington Nationals 4.27

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