Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics Pick & Prediction – 5/4/2024

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
  • Paul Blackburn - Athletics

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Athletics, with a record of 16-17, are having a below-average season, while the Marlins are enduring a terrible season with a record of 9-25. As the home team, the Athletics will have the advantage in this Interleague matchup.

On the mound, the Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Paul Blackburn, who has been performing well this season. Blackburn has started six games, boasting a win/loss record of 2-1 with an ERA of 3.34. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky and may experience a decline in performance going forward.

Opposing Blackburn will be left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers of the Marlins. Rogers has started six games this year but has yet to secure a win, with a record of 0-4 and an ERA of 4.31. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a lower FIP than his ERA, suggest that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

The Athletics, ranked 28th in MLB in terms of offense, have struggled to produce runs and have the third-worst team batting average in the league. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking fifth in MLB. On the other hand, the Marlins have the 29th ranked offense, but boast the third-best team batting average in the league.

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams are ranked towards the bottom, with the Athletics ranked 26th and the Marlins ranked 27th. This suggests that the game may be decided by the starting pitchers rather than the relief pitchers.

Based on the current odds, the Athletics are favored to win with an implied win probability of 52%, while the Marlins have an implied win probability of 48%. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs indicates that oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Tim Anderson is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Rating least steep in baseball since the start of last season, Miami Marlins bats jointly have recorded a 9.9° launch angle (an advanced standard to study the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Paul Blackburn has averaged 17.5 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This season, there has been a decline in J.D. Davis's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.73 ft/sec last year to 25.04 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 129 games (+11.78 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 away games (+10.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.73 vs Oakland Athletics 3.8

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