Los Angeles Dodgers vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 4/20/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 20, 2025, the stakes are high in this interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Rangers sitting at 13-8 and the Dodgers at 15-7. In their last game, the Rangers picked up a win despite the fact that the Dodgers lead the league with 36 home runs.

On the mound, Tyler Mahle is projected to start for the Rangers. He has been impressive this year, boasting a perfect 3-0 record and an exceptional ERA of 0.92. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as his 3.62 xFIP indicates he has benefited from some luck. Facing a power-laden Dodgers lineup could amplify those concerns, especially since Mahle is a high-flyball pitcher with a 40% flyball rate.

Tyler Glasnow, on the other hand, takes the hill for the Dodgers. Despite a less-than-stellar ERA of 4.85, his 4.13 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Glasnow's ability to strike out batters (projected at 6.6 strikeouts today) gives him an edge against a Rangers offense that ranks 25th in MLB. The projections suggest that Glasnow may find success against a team that doesn’t capitalize on walks, as the Rangers rank last in the league in that category.

With the Rangers' offense struggling and their bullpen ranked 22nd, the Dodgers appear to have the upper hand heading into this matchup. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting a balanced expectation, but with the Dodgers' high implied team total of 4.62 runs, they seem poised to take advantage of the Rangers’ weaknesses.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow's fastball velocity has fallen 1.7 mph this year (94.7 mph) below where it was last year (96.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball batters like Max Muncy tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Mahle.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball bats, Tyler Mahle and his 37.2% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in today's game matching up with 4 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Barrel% of Adolis Garcia has significantly improved, with an increase from 12.5% last year to 19.2% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.90 Units / 31% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.29, Texas Rangers 4.24

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers

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