Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/2/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 2, 2025, momentum is favoring the visiting team. The Braves currently find themselves at a disappointing 14-16, while the Dodgers sit atop the standings with a strong 21-10 record. Not only are the Dodgers having a stellar season, but they also boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by a team batting average of .278 and 2nd in home runs. In contrast, the Braves' offense ranks 13th in the league, indicating a below-average performance so far.

Atlanta is projected to start Grant Holmes, who has had a mixed season thus far with a 4.50 ERA and a Power Ranking that places him as the 151st best starting pitcher. Although he has a decent Win/Loss record of 2-1, advanced metrics suggest he has been lucky, with a 5.12 xERA indicating potential struggles ahead. Holmes is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs, which could be problematic against a potent Dodgers offense.

On the other side, Los Angeles will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has emerged as an elite starter with a 1.06 ERA and a Power Ranking placing him 3rd overall in MLB. Yamamoto has been dominant this season, with projections indicating he will allow just 2.3 earned runs over 5.8 innings pitched. This matchup strongly favors the Dodgers, not just because of their offensive prowess, but also due to the disparity in starting pitching effectiveness.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors should closely consider the Dodgers' offensive capabilities and Yamamoto's elite form as they look to capitalize on Atlanta's struggles.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Throwing 98.8 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Yoshinobu Yamamoto checks in at the 96th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Atlanta's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Max Muncy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

In the past week, Austin Riley's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 20.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 60% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.68, Atlanta Braves 4.08

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

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