Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 Best Bet – 10/9/2024

• Date: October 9, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game 4 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game 4 Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 4 of their National League Division Series matchup on October 9, 2024, both teams have their sights set on advancing in the playoffs. The Padres hold a slight edge in the series, having claimed a narrow 6-5 victory over the Dodgers in their last outing on October 8. With the Padres leading the series, today's game at Petco Park is pivotal for both clubs.

The Padres are turning to Dylan Cease, their right-handed ace, who ranks 22nd among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Despite his solid season with a 3.47 ERA, Cease has struggled in recent outings, allowing five earned runs over just three innings in his last start. However, the Padres' offense, ranked 6th in MLB this season, provides ample support. Jurickson Profar has been the backbone of their lineup, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has been on a tear over the past week, boasting an impressive .600 batting average and a 2.000 OPS.

The Dodgers counter with Landon Knack, whose 3.65 ERA this season belies his luck, as indicated by a 4.20 xFIP. Knack's projected performance today suggests challenges, with an expected 4.0 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed. The Dodgers' offense, however, holds the top spot in MLB, showcasing their ability to capitalize on pitching missteps. With Shohei Ohtani leading the charge, the Dodgers' bats are potent, ranking 2nd in home runs.

Both teams feature elite bullpens, with the Dodgers ranked 1st and the Padres 3rd. This game is set to be a nail-biter, with the Padres favored at -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. Given the Padres' recent victory and their home-field advantage, they seem poised to clinch the series, but the Dodgers' explosive offense cannot be underestimated.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Will Smith is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, Dylan Cease projects as the 12th-best starter in the game right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The San Diego Padres projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 121 games (+20.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 85 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Game 4 Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.58 vs San Diego Padres 4.81

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