Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Odds – 9/26/2024

• Date: September 26, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals prepare for their September 26 matchup at Nationals Park, both teams find themselves at different ends of the performance spectrum. The Nationals, struggling through a tough season with a 69-89 record, will try to salvage some pride against a Royals team enjoying an above-average season at 84-74. Although the Nationals are not contending for a playoff spot, the Royals are still in the mix, making this game significant for them.

On the mound for Washington, left-hander Patrick Corbin will be looking for a break in his challenging season. Corbin, with a 6-13 record and a 5.58 ERA, ranks 314th among starting pitchers, highlighting his struggles. His xFIP of 4.09 suggests he might have been a bit unlucky, but the statistics show a difficult year nonetheless. Facing a Royals lineup that is ranked as the 14th best in MLB, Corbin will have his work cut out.

Meanwhile, Kansas City will counter with right-hander Michael Wacha, who sports a 13-8 record with a commendable 3.28 ERA, placing him 61st among starting pitchers. Although his xFIP of 4.12 suggests he's been somewhat fortunate this season, Wacha will look to maintain his form against a Nationals offense that ranks 23rd overall and second-to-last in home runs, providing him an advantageous matchup as a high-flyball pitcher.

The Royals, with their reliable bullpen ranked 11th, have been the stronger side in many facets, while the Nationals' pen struggles at 28th in rankings. With the Nationals having a low implied team total of 3.75 runs compared to the Royals' 4.75, Kansas City is positioned as the favorite, a view supported by the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, which gives the Royals a 61% chance to win.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 93-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.6-mph jump from last season's 91.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Freddy Fermin has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .303 figure is considerably higher than his .266 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Kansas City Royals batters as a unit have been one of the best in Major League Baseball this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Patrick Corbin is expected to tally an average of 3.8 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Dylan Crews has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 6.6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Joey Gallo pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+10.05 Units / 17% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.17 vs Washington Nationals 3.88

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